The World Bank has adjusted its projection for Ghana’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2025 to 3.9%, which is below the government’s target of 4.4%.
This revised estimate, found in the April 2025 edition of the Africa’s Pulse report by the Bretton Woods institution, indicates a slight decrease from the earlier forecast of 4.3%.
The World Bank attributed this downgrade to ongoing inflationary pressures and external vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, the Bank expresses a cautious optimism regarding Ghana’s medium-term outlook, anticipating a growth rebound to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.
The report emphasized the risks associated with climate change, particularly the erratic weather patterns that have adversely affected cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which are two of the foremost cocoa-exporting nations globally.
It cautioned that climate-related incidents, such as floods and droughts, are persistently undermining national budgets throughout Africa by as much as 9%, leading to economic downturns ranging from 2% to 5%. On a more optimistic note, Ghana is one of the few African economies exhibiting early signs of recovery in 2025.
High-frequency indicators, especially the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), indicate a rise in business activity. Ghana’s PMI increased from 47.9 in January to 50.6 in March, reflecting enhanced demand, alleviated supply constraints, and renewed investor confidence following the presidential elections in December 2024.
The World Bank reported that business activities in Mozambique and Ghana experienced a recovery in February 2025. The slight increase in Ghana was attributed to heightened demand and a revival in new business initiatives.
In the broader context, economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is anticipated to improve marginally from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, with a further increase to 4.3% projected for 2026–2027.
Nevertheless, the overall economic outlook for the continent is hindered by underperformance in its three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola.
Excluding these nations, the remaining countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to grow by 4.6% in 2025, reaching 5.7% by 2027.
The World Bank also cautioned that significant downside risks, such as global policy uncertainties, climate-related shocks, and fiscal limitations, continue to threaten a stable and inclusive recovery across the continent.
