The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a growth rate of 4% for Ghana by the end of 2025. The IMF included this forecast in its Global Economic Outlook Report, released during the Annual World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, on October 14, 2025.
The IMF expects Ghana’s economy to grow faster, at 4.8%, in 2026. This projection is slightly lower than the 4.4% growth target established by the Government of Ghana in the national budget for 2025.
In Q2 2025, Ghana’s economy grew 6.3%, led by the services sector’s 9.9% growth, which contributed most to GDP. However, the IMF’s forecast is slightly below the World Bank’s projection of 4.3% for Ghana by the end of the year, as mentioned in the Africa Pulse Report released in October 2025.
Some analysts suggest that the IMF’s estimate indicates a more cautious outlook regarding Ghana’s short-term growth prospects compared to the World Bank.
The IMF also projects an end-of-year inflation rate of 12% for 2025, which is marginally above the government’s target of 11.9% in the national budget. This stands in contrast to Ghana’s recent performance, where inflation decreased significantly to 9.4% in September 2025, down from 21.5% the previous year.
The Fund’s outlook marks it as the second major institution, following the World Bank, to express skepticism about Ghana maintaining single-digit inflation by the end of the year.
In its October Africa Pulse Report, the World Bank predicted an inflation rate of 15.4% for Ghana in 2025. Observers find these estimates to be “interesting,” considering that inflation has been consistently declining and may decrease further — potentially reaching 7% in October 2025, based on local data trends. Despite these external forecasts, the Bank of Ghana is optimistic that inflation will remain in the single-digit range by December 2025.
The IMF anticipates further disinflation in 2026, predicting inflation will decrease to 9.4%. During a speech in Washington, D.C., Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s Director of Research, pointed out that emerging and developing economies, such as Ghana, continue to be susceptible to global uncertainties, even as they exhibit signs of recovery. He recommended that nations strengthen their fiscal buffers to better endure future external shocks. Mr. Gourinchas also mentioned that he does not foresee the ongoing tariff conflicts significantly affecting developing economies.
The IMF report further predicts that global growth will decelerate from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. Advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.5%, while emerging and developing nations, including Ghana, are expected to see growth of approximately 4%.
