Fitch Solutions has upgraded Ghana’s growth forecast for 2025 to 4.9%, an increase from the previous estimate of 4.2%. This adjustment reflects a trend of improving macroeconomic stability, aided by decreasing inflation and a relatively stable cedi.
In its Monthly Outlook for September 2025, the UK-based research firm noted that Ghana’s economy is on a consistent recovery trajectory, despite challenges posed by fiscal consolidation, elevated interest rates, and stagnant oil production.
This optimistic outlook is supported by a strong performance in the first quarter, where GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by enhanced agricultural output.
Fitch anticipates that growth will stabilize around 5.0% in 2026, bolstered by declining inflation, expected monetary easing, and increased public spending as Ghana’s IMF-supported program approaches its conclusion.
Recent statistics from the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) indicate that growth slowed to 4.5% in July 2025, compared to 8.3% during the same month last year.
Agriculture continued to be the leading sector, growing by 8.0%, a significant recovery from the 2.4% growth recorded in July 2024.
The report also forecasts that inflation will decrease to 8.0% by the end of 2025, down from 11.5% in August, representing the lowest rate in four years.
The combination of a stable currency and reduced global energy prices is anticipated to enhance consumer confidence and stimulate domestic demand.
Fitch’s latest projections diverge from the IMF’s growth estimate of 4.0% for 2025 and the government’s target of 4.4% outlined in the national budget.
This revision reflects a renewed sense of investor confidence in Ghana’s economic outlook, grounded in improving price stability, resilient agricultural performance, and enhanced policy credibility.
Nevertheless, Fitch warned that maintaining this positive momentum will require fiscal discipline, ongoing structural reforms, and a stable exchange rate environment.
