The Treasury bill market is anticipated to experience ongoing pressure in the short term, with yields expected to rise despite indications of disinflation.
As per a recent update from Databank Research, investors are likely to remain wary until the 2026 Budget delivers clearer insights into the government’s borrowing strategy and fiscal consolidation, which are essential for reestablishing a more balanced demand-supply dynamic in the debt market.
The auction from last week underscored these difficulties, marking the fourth consecutive instance of undersubscription.
The Treasury secured GHS 4.50 billion against a target of GHS 6.83 billion, indicating a 34% shortfall. This amount only accounted for 66% of the planned issuance and 68% of the forthcoming maturities, which total GHS 6.65 billion.
Yields on Treasury bills increased across the board, reflecting stringent market conditions. The 91-day and 182-day bills rose by 11 basis points to 10.93% and 12.61%, respectively, while the 364-day bill increased by 7 basis points to 13.02%.
Databank Research observes that until the 2026 Budget provides clarity on fiscal policy and borrowing strategies, investor caution is likely to continue, maintaining upward pressure on yields despite the ongoing disinflation.
