Inflation in emerging market and developing economies, including Ghana, is anticipated to increase in 2026, primarily due to elevated global energy prices and supply chain disruptions, as stated in the latest Commodity Markets Outlook published by the World Bank.
The report forecasts that consumer price inflation in these regions will rise to approximately 5.1 percent in 2026, reversing previous predictions that inflation would decrease this year.
According to the World Bank, the rising inflationary pressure is largely associated with recent shocks in energy prices and geopolitical conflicts, which are elevating input costs across various sectors of the global economy.
The report indicates that the increasing costs of fuel and other vital commodities may permeate a broad spectrum of consumer goods, thereby exerting additional strain on household finances in developing economies.
It also cautions that inflationary pressures could escalate if disruptions in global energy markets continue.
In a scenario where oil prices surge significantly due to prolonged geopolitical tensions, inflation in emerging economies could rise to between 5.3% and 5.8% in 2026, marking one of the highest levels observed in the last decade.
Rising energy costs are projected to hinder real income growth and diminish consumer demand in numerous emerging economies, while simultaneously increasing operational expenses for businesses.
The World Bank notes that central banks in many developing economies may respond to rising inflation by maintaining a tighter monetary policy, which could further impact borrowing costs and investment activities.
The outlook underscores the susceptibility of emerging markets to global commodity shocks, especially for economies that are heavily dependent on energy imports.
