The African Development Bank (AfDB) anticipates that Ghana’s economy will grow by 4.5% in 2025, propelled by strong performance in the mining sector, continued fiscal consolidation, and increased interest rates, as stated in its most recent African Economic Outlook report published during the AfDB Annual Meetings in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of essential economic indicators across member nations, including GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, debt sustainability, and external accounts, while highlighting potential risks to economic stability in West Africa.
Looking forward, the AfDB forecasts that Ghana’s GDP growth will further increase to 4.8% in 2026, supported by improved macroeconomic fundamentals.
The government of Ghana has presented slightly more conservative estimates. Finance Minister Dr. Ato Forson, in the 2025 budget, has set the overall GDP growth at 4.0%, with non-oil GDP growth aimed at 4.8%.
The World Bank, in its April 2025 Africa’s Pulse report, projects Ghana’s growth at 3.9% for 2025, increasing to 4.6% in 2026 and reaching 4.8% by 2027. However, it warns that climate variability, particularly its effects on cocoa yields and prices in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, represents a significant downside risk to these growth forecasts.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its Regional Economic Outlook released during the Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., has adjusted Ghana’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.0%, aligning with the government’s predictions. The IMF also anticipates a growth rate of 4.8% in 2026.
Regarding Ghana’s inflation outlook, the AfDB is less optimistic than the government. While the Ministry of Finance expects end-2025 inflation to be 11.9%, and the Bank of Ghana predicts 12%, the AfDB estimates a higher rate of 15.4%. This figure would still indicate a decrease from the April 2025 inflation rate of 21%, yet it remains significantly above official targets.
The IMF adopts an even more cautious stance, forecasting inflation at 17.5% for 2025, indicating a probable failure to meet the government’s inflation objectives.
Nevertheless, the AfDB anticipates potential improvements in 2026, predicting a return to single-digit inflation at 9%, bolstered by stricter monetary policy, a stable cedi, and declining food prices.
The AfDB reports that Ghana’s fiscal deficit is projected to decrease to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, reflecting the government’s efforts towards fiscal consolidation and enhanced public financial management. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall to 66.4% in 2025, aided by ongoing debt restructuring initiatives and improved revenue generation.
On the external side, the current account balance is anticipated to be 2.6% of GDP in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, supported by increased oil and gold export revenues.
Despite the positive forecasts, the AfDB cautions about considerable downside risks, such as the effects of climate change, potential policy reversals, and the repercussions of U.S. tariff increases. The Bank emphasizes that it is essential to maintain the fiscal consolidation trajectory to protect the economy from these threats.
For Ghana, it will be crucial to maintain the momentum of reforms and withstand external shocks as it seeks to achieve stronger and more resilient growth in the coming two years.
