In 2025, global food prices are anticipated to decrease for the second consecutive year, primarily due to a notable decline in rice prices, influenced by ample global supplies and the relaxation of export restrictions affecting the market.
The World Bank’s recent Commodity Markets Outlook predicts a 7% reduction in its food price index compared to the previous year, with all three major sub-categories—grains, oils and meals, and other food items—expected to experience declines.
Grain prices are projected to face the most significant drop, with an 11% decrease, largely driven by an anticipated 29% fall in rice prices. This forecast is linked to robust global production and the easing of export restrictions from India.
India, which represents approximately 40% of the world’s rice exports, is expected to boost its production by 5% in the 2024-25 season.
On a global scale, rice production is anticipated to increase by 2%. Despite a temporary downturn, rice prices are projected to remain relatively stable in 2026, as supply and demand are expected to rise concurrently, according to preliminary estimates from the International Grains Council.
Wheat prices are also predicted to decline through 2026 due to concerns regarding trade-related demand; however, this decrease may be mitigated by tight supply conditions.
Although global wheat production is nearing record levels, it is expected to slightly fall short of consumption, leading to lower inventory levels.
Conversely, maize prices are forecasted to decrease by 2% in both 2025 and 2026. The combination of weaker crude oil prices—reducing ethanol demand—and increasing U.S.-China trade tariffs is likely to suppress demand.
Furthermore, the competitive pricing of maize compared to wheat and soybeans is anticipated to promote increased farming, thereby exerting additional downward pressure.
However, the decline in prices may be constrained by historically low inventory levels, projected to hit their lowest point in more than ten years.
