The World Bank’s April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts that the average price of crude oil will be $64 per barrel in 2025, representing a significant decrease from the $80.70 per barrel average observed in 2024.
Furthermore, the institution predicts an even lower average of $60 per barrel for 2026 if current trends continue. With a relatively stable exchange rate and declining global oil prices, fuel prices at the pump are expected to remain stable, unless significant disruptions exist.
The report links the recent decline in oil prices to growing concerns regarding global economic performance, which caused prices to fall below $63 per barrel in early April, marking the lowest level since April 2021.
This downward trend commenced following the imposition of substantial trade tariffs by the United States on April 2, resulting in a $12 per barrel decrease over four trading days, which is noted as the 11th-largest four-day decline in oil prices since 1990.
Although Brent crude had decreased to $70 per barrel by early March 2025, various market forces led to a slight increase of $1 per barrel in the first quarter of the year, which partially countered the $5 per barrel decline recorded in the last quarter of 2024.
Global oil demand continues to show resilience, with consumption increasing by 1.2 million barrels per day (1.2%) in the first quarter of 2025, a slight rise from the 1.1% growth observed in the previous quarter.
In China, demand experienced a growth of 0.2 million barrels per day (1.4%), compared to a 1.0% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024. Advanced economies also witnessed a modest recovery in demand, rising by 0.4 million barrels per day (0.9%), up from 0.3% earlier.
Throughout 2024, oil demand growth slowed in China, Europe, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, while it accelerated in East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China), the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia. Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa decreased, and demand remained stagnant in developed economies.
A significant factor contributing to the decline in China’s oil demand was the rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, with over 40% of new car sales in China being EVs in 2024, resulting in an estimated reduction of 0.45 million barrels per day in oil consumption.
