The recent decline in global crude oil prices may provide some relief at fuel stations, yet it presents a considerable risk to Ghana’s revenue forecasts — a situation that could hinder the nation’s pursuit of its fiscal policy objectives. In the 2025 budget, the government anticipates generating over one billion dollars from crude oil exports, predicated on a benchmark price of $74 per barrel.
However, in the past fortnight, international oil prices have been fluctuating between $61 and $65 per barrel, significantly lower than the anticipated figures, prompting analysts to warn of a possible shortfall in expected revenues. This price drop is primarily attributed to diminishing global demand and concerns regarding a looming recession, with numerous analysts forecasting a further decrease.
They caution that this trend could jeopardize Ghana’s revenue goals, thereby constricting the fiscal environment.
Fitch Solutions recently reported that oil-exporting markets in Sub-Saharan Africa will face considerable challenges if global oil prices do not rebound.
Brent crude prices have fallen approximately 14.9% since April 2, 2025, amid growing concerns of a global economic downturn, worsened by OPEC+’s decision to hasten the return of its reduced barrels to the market. This situation is particularly alarming due to the anticipated decline in revenue from non-traditional exports, which is further complicated by new import tariff increases imposed by the U.S., adding strain to the country’s already limited financial resources.
Conversely, some market analysts suggest that lower crude prices may result in decreased local fuel costs, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures and providing some stability to the cedi, thus offering a small measure of relief in the face of widespread economic uncertainty.
Furthermore, Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Ampem Nyarko has stated that the government plans to engage with transport operators to lower fares in light of the falling fuel prices.
In an interview at the Kwahu Business Forum, Mr. Nyarko highlighted the beneficial effects this initiative could have on inflation.
